After scanning this paper by Zeileis, Leitner & Hornik, I thought it would be interesting to see how the victory odds for each team changes as Euro 2012 progresses. To do this, I am going to collect the daily inverse odds of a tournament victory offered by a popular betting site for each team.
Here is the first plot. Day one corresponds to the pretournament odds as given in the aforementioned paper for the popular betting site. These odds were obtained on the 9th of May, while day two’s odds were collected this morning.
I’ll update this in a week.
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Nice! Could you post the data and code as you progress as well? I would like to see the Danish odds more closely than this plot allows, maybe throw out Spain & Germany
Hey Emil, Congratulations on the great result yesterday! In my next update I will make the plots clearer by using a facet grid in ggplot2. Also, I will post the code and try to upload these data. I think I will do this on Monday, after every team has played. Who wouldn’t like to throw out Germany and Spain 🙂
Thank you, that sure was a very pleasant surprise!! 😀
Good idea with the facets, and I appreciate that you will upload code and data, it will be fun playing around with.
Cheers!
Wow, great idea! Day-by-day changes would also be great, then you could see the impact of the match results and news like injuries.
Thanks Jan! I collected the odds for today. Spain and Germany are exactly the same. Meanwhile, the Netherlands’ odds have plummeted. I will update the day by day accounts on Tuesday morning after each team has played, so stay tuned!
please include code and data as I want to learn and use Samuel Bangalore, India
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