How Predictable is the English Premier League?

betuncertain

The reason why football is so exciting is uncertainty. The outcome of any match or league is unknown, and you get to watch the action unfold without knowing what’s going to happen. Watching matches where you know the score is never exciting.

This weekend the English Premier League season will conclude with little fanfare. Bar one relegation place, the league positions have already been determined. In fact, these positions were, for the most part, decided weeks ago. The element of uncertainty seems to have been reduced this season.

With this in mind, I wanted to look at uncertainty over the long run in English football. To do this used the data provided by http://www.football-data.co.uk/ and analyzed these with R. These data consist of 34,740 matches played in the top 5 divisions of English football between 2000 and 2015, containing information about both the result and the odds offered by bookies on this result.

To measure the uncertainty of any given match I used the following strategy. First, I averaged across all bookies’ odds for the three possible events: home win, draw, and away win. Next I mapped these aggregated odds into probabilities by inverting each of the odds and then dividing by the summed inverted odds. This takes care of the over round that helps bookies to make a profit. For example, if the odds were 2.1/1 that an event happens and 2.1/1 that it doesn’t then the probability of the event occurring is:

(1/2.1)/ (1/2.1 + (1/2.1)) = 0.4761905/(0.4761905+0.4761905) = 0.5.

Finally, to measure the uncertainty of each match, I subtract the probability that the event occurred from 1, to calculate a “residual” score. Imagine a home win occurs. The “residual” in this case will be 1-P(home win). If P(home win)=1, then there is no uncertainty, and this uncertainty score will be zero. Since there are 3 outcomes, we would expect an uncertainty measure to be bounded between 0 (no uncertainty) and 0.67 (pure uncertainty) where we get 1 out of 3right by just guessing.

After importing these data into R and calculating the uncertainty measure, I looked at this uncertainty measure over time. The plot in the above shows fitted smoothed trend lines of uncertainty, stratified by division. These trends are striking. Going by this graph, the Premier League has gotten more predictable over the analysis period. In 2000, the uncertainty measure was around 0.605. Given that we expect this measure to be bound between 0 (complete certainty) and 0.67 (completely random), this tell us that the average league game was very unpredictable. Over time, however, this measure has decreased by about 5%, which does not seem like much. Despite, the somewhat unexciting end to the 2014/15 season, the outcome of the average game is still not very predictable.

Noticeably, in lower league games there is even greater uncertainty. In fact, the average uncertainty measure of League 2 games approached a value of 0.65 in 2014. This indicates that the average League 2 game is about as unpredictable as playing rock-paper-scissors. Interestingly, and unlike the Premier League, there does not appear to be any discernible change over time. The games are just as unpredictable now as they were in 2000. Please see my R code below.

# clear
rm(list=ls())

# libraries
library(ggplot2)

# what are urls

years = c(rep("0001",4), rep("0102",4), rep("0203",4), rep("0405",4),
          rep("0506",5), rep("0607",5), rep("0708",5), rep("0809",5),
          rep("0910",5), rep("1011",5), rep("1112",5), rep("1213",5),
          rep("1314",5), rep("1415",5))
divis = c(rep(c("E0","E1","E2","E3"),4), rep(c("E0","E1","E2","E3","EC"),10))

urls = paste(years, divis, sep="/")
urls = paste("http://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281", urls, sep="/")


odds = c("B365H","B365D","B365A",
         "BSH","BSD","BSA",
         "BWH","BWD","BWA",
         "GBH","GBD","GBA",
         "IWH","IWD","IWA",
         "LBH","LBD","LBA",
         "PSH","PSD","PSA",
         "SOH","SOD","SOA",
         "SBH","SBD","SBA",
         "SJH","SJD","SJA",
         "SYH","SYD","SYA",
         "VCH","VCD","VCA",
         "WHH","WHD","WHA")
home = odds[seq(1,length(odds),3)]
draw = odds[seq(2,length(odds),3)]
away = odds[seq(3,length(odds),3)]

# load all data in a loop
full.data = NULL
for(i in 1:length(urls)){
  temp = read.csv(urls[i])
  # calculate average odds
  temp$homeodds = apply(temp[,names(temp) %in% home], 1, function(x) mean(x,na.rm=T))
  temp$drawodds = apply(temp[,names(temp) %in% draw], 1, function(x) mean(x,na.rm=T))
  temp$awayodds = apply(temp[,names(temp) %in% away], 1, function(x) mean(x,na.rm=T))
  temp = temp[,c("Div","Date","FTHG","FTAG","FTR","homeodds","drawodds","awayodds")]
  full.data = rbind(full.data, temp)
}

full.data$homewin = ifelse(full.data$FTR=="H", 1, 0)
full.data$draw = ifelse(full.data$FTR=="D", 1, 0)
full.data$awaywin = ifelse(full.data$FTR=="A", 1, 0)

# convert to probs with overrind
full.data$homeprob = (1/full.data$homeodds)/(1/full.data$homeodds+1/full.data$drawodds+1/full.data$awayodds)
full.data$drawprob = (1/full.data$drawodds)/(1/full.data$homeodds+1/full.data$drawodds+1/full.data$awayodds)
full.data$awayprob = (1/full.data$awayodds)/(1/full.data$homeodds+1/full.data$drawodds+1/full.data$awayodds)

# bookie residual
full.data$bookieres = 1-full.data$homeprob
full.data$bookieres[full.data$FTR=="D"] = 1-full.data$drawprob[full.data$FTR=="D"]
full.data$bookieres[full.data$FTR=="A"] = 1-full.data$awayprob[full.data$FTR=="A"]

# now plot over time
full.data$time = ifelse(nchar(as.character(full.data$Date))==8, 
                         as.Date(full.data$Date,format='%d/%m/%y'),
                         as.Date(full.data$Date,format='%d/%m/%Y'))
full.data$date = as.Date(full.data$time, origin = "1970-01-01") 

full.data$Division = "Premier League" 
full.data$Division[full.data$Div=="E1"] = "Championship" 
full.data$Division[full.data$Div=="E2"] = "League 1" 
full.data$Division[full.data$Div=="E3"] = "League 2" 
full.data$Division[full.data$Div=="EC"] = "Conference" 

full.data$Division = factor(full.data$Division, levels = c("Premier League", "Championship", "League 1",
                                                           "League 2","Conference"))

ggplot(full.data, aes(date, bookieres, colour=Division)) +
  stat_smooth(size = 1.25, alpha = 0.2) +
  labs(x = "Year", y = "Uncertainty") + 
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.position="bottom") +
  theme(axis.text=element_text(size=20),
        axis.title=element_text(size=20),
        legend.title = element_text(size=20),
        legend.text = element_text(size=20))

Identical Champions League Draw: What Were the Odds?

cldraw1A number of news outlets have reported a peculiar quirk that arose during Friday’s Champions League draw. Apparently, the sport’s European governing body, UEFA, ran a trial run the day before the main event, and the schedule chosen during this event was identical to that of the actual draw on Friday.

Given this strange coincidence, a number of people have been expressing the various odds of this occurrence. For example, the author of this newspaper article claimed that ‘bookies’ calculated the odds at 5,000 to 1. In other words, the probability of this event was 0.0002.

The same article also says that the probability of this event (two random draws being identical) occurring is not as low as one might think. However, this article does not give the probability or odds of this event occurring. The oblivious reason for this is that such a calculation is difficult. Since teams from the same domestic league and teams from the same country cannot play each other, such a calculation involves using conditional probabilities over a variety of scenarios.

Despite my training in Mathematics and interest in quantitative pursuits, I have always struggled to calculate the probability of multiple conditional events. Given that there are many different ways in which two identical draws can be made, such a calculation is, unfortunately, beyond my admittedly limited ability.

Thankfully, there’s a cheats way to getting a rough answer: use Monte Carlo simulation. The code below shows how to write up a function in R that performs synthetic draws for the Champions League given the aforementioned conditions. With this function, I performed two draws 200,000 times, and calculated that the probability of the identical draws is: 0.00011, so the odds are around: 1 in 9,090. This probability is subject to some sampling error, however getting a more accurate measure via simulation would require more computing power like that enabled by Rcpp (which I really need to learn). Nevertheless, the answer is clearly lower than that proposed either by the ‘bookies’ or the newspaper article’s author.

# cl draw
rm(list=ls())
setwd("C:/Users/Alan/Desktop")
dat <- read.csv("cldraw.csv")

#=============================
> dat
team iso pos group
1       Galatasaray TUR  RU     H
2           Schalke GER  WI     B
3            Celtic SCO  RU     G
4          Juventus ITA  WI     E
5           Arsenal ENG  RU     B
6            Bayern GER  WI     F
7  Shakhtar Donetsk UKR  RU     E
8          Dortmund GER  WI     D
9             Milan ITA  RU     C
10        Barcelona ESP  WI     G
11      Real Madrid ESP  RU     D
12      Man. United ENG  WI     H
13         Valencia ESP  RU     F
14              PSG FRA  WI     A
15            Porto POR  RU     A
16           Malaga ESP  WI     C
#=============================

draw <- function(x){
  fixtures <- matrix(NA,nrow=8,ncol=2)
  p <- 0
  while(p==0){
    for(j in 1:8){
      k <- 0
      n <- 0
      while(k==0){
        n <- n + 1
        if(n>50){break}
        aa <- x[x[,"pos"]=="RU",]
        t1 <- aa[sample(1:dim(aa)[1],1),]
        bb <- x[x[,"pos"]=="WI",]
        t2 <- bb[sample(1:dim(bb)[1],1),]
        k <- ifelse(t1[,"iso"]!=t2[,"iso"] & t1[,"group"]!=t2[,"group"],1,0)
      }
      fixtures[j,1] <- as.character(t1[,"team"])
      fixtures[j,2] <- as.character(t2[,"team"])
      x <- x[!(x[,"team"] %in% c(as.character(t1[,"team"]),
                                 as.character(t2[,"team"]))),]
    }
    if(n>50){p <- 0}    
    p <- ifelse(sum(as.numeric(is.na(fixtures)))==0,1,0)
  }
  return(fixtures)
}

drawtwo <- function(x){ 
  f1 <- as.vector(unlist(x))
  joinup <- data.frame(team=f1[1:16], iso=f1[17:32],
                       pos=f1[33:48], group=f1[49:64])
  check1 <- data.frame(draw(joinup))
  check2 <- data.frame(draw(joinup))
  rightdraw <- ifelse(sum(na.omit(check1[order(check1),2])==
    na.omit(check2[order(check2),2]))==8, 1, 0)
  return(rightdraw)
}

drawtwo(dat)

dat2 <- rbind(as.vector(unlist(dat)),
              as.vector(unlist(dat)))
dat3 <- dat2[rep(1,1000),]

vals <- 0
for(i in 1:200){
  yy <- apply(dat3, 1, drawtwo)
  vals <- sum(yy) + vals
}
#=============================
# Probability 
> vals/200000
[1] 0.00011
# Odds
> 1/(vals/200000)-1
[1] 9089.909
#=============================